THE RAINS ARE COMING AND THE GAME COULD CHANGE

THERE is a lot of speculation in the pro-LTTE Tamil media, most of which predicts a counter-strike by the Tigers once the heavy monsoon rains start and logistics in the western coastal areas become a nightmare.

"...For instance this was what Thinakkural had to say in its August 8 issue.
“The forces restlessly fighting will be fed up and disgusted owing to their inability to achieve the goal and will also be subjected to battle stress and fear due to which they will not be able to face the fierce retaliation of the rebels.

Troops are now thinned out in a vast area between the areas of Manthai, Illuppakkadavai, Mannar-Vavuniya Road and Paliaru River. The jungle areas and the basins of Parangiyan Aru and Nayaru in this terrain will cause havoc to the troops during the forthcoming monsoon, because there are no proper road networks in this sector and when these rivers begin to flood, troops will be bogged down.

If troops continue to advance northwards, the Tigers who are in a strong position in Palamottai and Moonrumurippu might move westwards cutting across the troops’ supply route and trapping them in Vavunikulam, Panankamam and Sivattikulam into death. Also the Sea Tigers will play havoc by their sea borne operations. In such an event army would be deprived of even the Thalladi base in Mannar, as they lost the elephant Pass base complex in 2001.”

Almost all Tamil newspapers except the Thinakaran published by the Lake House foresee the future of the Wanni battles on the same line of thinking, apparently because they want to appease the general Tamil psyche..."

http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=23507

Sri Lankan defence planners should be aware of these facts and anticipating a conuter-strike in the areas of highest vulnerability. Pre-empting the LTTE's ability to conduct such a counter-strike must surely be topmost on their minds.