LOCAL GOVT ELECTIONS AND ANTI-TERRORISM OPERATIONS

UPFA the ruling party is winning the local govt elections with sweeping margins. Though there was election related violence and possible rigging in some of the electorates, an end result which leaves this govt firmly in power is definitely in the interest of the country, given the war situation. A significant power shift could have caused problems Sri Lanka does not need at this hour.

The SL Defence Forces continue to perform credibly in the anti-terrorist operations being conducted in the last remaining two districts, Mullaitivu and Killinochchi. The Army is poised within 12 kilo meters of Killinochchi while Special Forces are deep into the jungles of Mullaitivu. Some elements of the 58th Division are also reported to be already within striking distance of LTTE targets in Killinochchi.

The fighting is bound to take a different style, and is going to be difficult. The LTTE has had all the time in the world and have the traditional advantage of the defender. Nevertheless, the initiative still remains with the SLDF since the initiative for the first strike even now is largely with them. That is unless the LTTE is capable of moving a large contingent of men and material to cause siginificant damage to the amassed forces and precipitate a recognizable change in the conduct of the next phase.

SL forces are expected to be handicapped by not being able to resort to wide use of artillery and air-superiority, two aspects that have dominated to keep the momentum in their favor so far. A weapon which has proven decisive in the fighting so far, the Multi-barrel rocket launchers will have reduced utility due to the proximity of civillian centers in the battle ahead. That is unless the SLG manages to move the civillians out of harm's way first.

The LTTE will do their utmost to prevent the loss of their 'human shield' the civillian population that also has been now armed. Even though a civillian armed against a legitimate government is technically operating outside the law and liable to face consequences, changing geo-politics demand the SLG treat them differently. How this plays out, when combat weary troops reach them will be unpredictable. The govt forces will definitely need to minimize civillian casualties and focus on communicating with them to disarm any, without loss of life on either side.

The coming weeks promise to be an era of historical significance. As the LTTE fights with its back to the wall, and a determined SLA pushes home its attacks to decisively finish off the enemy, the task before the politicians and diplomats is going to be challenging. As much as our military forces have proven more than adequate and professional in dealing with the tasks entrusted to them so far, whether the Sri Lankan diplomatic community will prove a match to the task that is now going to be placed before them, will remain to be seen.