The supreme skill - winning over the Tamils – to defeat the LTTE

By Lalin Fernando
Fighting to win 100 victories in 100 battles is not the supreme skill. However to break the enemies’ resistance without fighting is the supreme skill" (Sun Tzu – circa 400-320 BC)

What is it that keeps the LTTE fighting despite completely losing its hold on the east and its eastern commander and cadres due to respectively the unrelenting actions of the defense forces and mass desertion by its eastern cadres while being restricted to just 5% of its claimed land? Add to this that the western international community (IC), amongst whom one million Tamils live, declared them terrorists, froze their bank accounts and began prosecuting their ‘collectors’. It must be something more than just their fighting skills and spirit or the very lucrative Diaspora funding or any other thing. It has to be their unbroken will power that comes from a deep belief in their cause and a courage that defies death. To defeat the LTTE the state whatever else it does must break that very will power by attacking and destroying the support, faith and confidence that sustains it.

It was not always clear as it must be now that the key to the state defeating the LTTE was by winning over the hearts and minds of the Tamils and thus isolating the LTTE. Without the support of the Tamils, the LTTE’s will power cannot be sustained. Defeating it in battle and destroying its international funding and supply chain will help to erode its morale and spirit considerably but will not stop it from continuing to fight. The state’s focus however appears to be to convince the IC, but not the affected Tamils, that while pursuing its military options it does not humiliate or discriminate against the Tamils. Even so very serious allegations are made of abductions and other violations of the human rights (HR) of the Tamils. The state has thus handed over a global propaganda bonanza to the LTTE and its local allies who look forward to deliverance by the IC by way of severe, mainly economic, strictures on the GoSL with the threat of direct intervention. Not surprisingly most Tamils believe the issue is still in the balance and are constrained to keep their own counsel.

The LTTE cannot sustain the high level of casualties it suffers for ever. The trapped Wanni Tamils, their only source of reinforcement, are steadily abandoning the dwindling areas controlled by it. It has to rely on its hard core and child cadres, many of them women to prop up its strength. All its fighters are either abducted or conscripted unlike the state forces which are purely voluntary, something that many tend to overlook when forecasting the future. Very many Tamils have already been decimated by the LTTE for refusing to accept its leadership. Karuna must have known that the LTTE would in time want to annihilate the easterners like the North Vietnamese army did to their spearhead, the Vietcong, after defeating the US backed Saigon government. Hitler did the same to his possible rivals like Roehm after the Reichstag fire. Fifty percent (400,000) of Tamils in the Jaffna district alone have already fled from the LTTE in the 25 years of fighting. This does not include 50,000 Muslims who were evicted overnight. Attrition in the ongoing conventional battles will cause further critical manpower shortages for the LTTE. However its ability to wage guerilla war and mount terrorist attacks can be sustained for as long as its will power remains unbroken and especially while its suicide cadres exist. They make the LTTE though considerably weakened, a still very formidable force. To believe otherwise is to fantasize. It unfailingly gives us reminders of its vapourizing suicide prowess. That power is as lethal as a nuclear deterrent. This is the reality. The LTTE threat cannot simply be willed away by politicians making hysterical claims to the media.

Mao Tse Dung said that ‘power comes out of the barrel of the gun’ but he more pointedly and importantly also said that to win in guerilla warfare one must drain the water (Tamils) from the pool in which the fish (LTTE) swim. He like all great leaders understood that without the support of all the people, victory in guerilla war would be unattainable. Maybe our leaders believe that the support of the majority of the people would be enough. However without the firm support of the Tamils for whom the LTTE says it is fighting, this war is unlikely to end.

Another fallacy is to believe that this conflict is a continuation of political intercourse by other means. It is not. This is about 2 cultures which have over 2000 years kept warm a shared antagonistic history mixed with bloody myths and legends which emphasize their differences, yet they share a great deal more in common. Despite the efforts of those who dare (and dared) to cross the lines it has been very difficult to consign these differences to where they belong –history. The problem will not be solved as long as the people concerned selfishly and supinely allow politicians to exploit these differences. By doing so they perpetuate the agony that they have suffered for 25 years.

The LTTE is and was a racist, totalitarian organization and can claim no place in a democracy. It claimed it was the sole representative of the Tamils which some politicians and a prejudiced IC used to regurgitate until very recently but Chilcott from St James has belatedly realized and openly admitted the LTTE is not and cannot be the ‘sole rep’. Its pretensions at wishing to negotiate, which earlier seduced the IC, no longer mesmerizes the general public. Minister Douglas Devananda, a former rebel, who has survived regular attempts at assassination by the LTTE, puts it more succinctly when he says that "even if you could achieve such a feat as brushing the teeth of a cobra, ploughing the sea or squeezing an elephant through the eye of a needle, you cannot make peace with the LTTE". However it still does not mean that a peaceful resolution to the problem should not be pursued.

Unlike the Jewish Diaspora which vowed "tomorrow Jerusalem" every day for nearly 800 years, the vast majority of Diaspora Tamils after 25 years of war, especially the younger generation, have little or no desire to return to SL even though their parents still give monetary and moral support to the LTTE. The Tamils of and in Colombo who have not done too badly for themselves, sacrificing little have no desire to live in a fascist state which extols and offers its unique gift- martyrdom. Yet even though they are 40% of the population of Colombo, the Tamils are loath to speak up mainly through fear of the long reach of the LTTE and their natural loyalty to members of their own community who are ‘fighting’ for them and exclusion from the decision making process of the state as to their own future. Well known Tamil leaders like Mr. Anandasangaree who has to be the bravest man in SL and the outspoken and blunt Professor Hoole who for his views on the villainy but not only of the LTTE, have unequivocally said that the LTTE and not the SL armed forces will destroy the remaining Tamils of SL.

LTTE survival tactics too have seriously eroded its self proclaimed posture as the saviour of the Tamils. The Tamils are aware that it is the Tamil children less Prabakaran’s and women but not the LTTE hard core cadres in the Wanni, who make the greatest sacrifice. They are used as expendable screens in human wave attacks and female suicide bombings. A movement that makes a pact and virtue of suicide, a negation of the human spirit, must lead itself to the grave. But the Tamils in general without choosing alternate leaders, have not dared to take a stand. The very comfortably well off Colombo Tamils, must now be encouraged to come out of their luxury bunkers and take their places in the FDLs by speaking out if they wish the war to end so that at least the children of this country might prosper. They must not stay on the side lines any longer, silently watching the LTTE destroy every chance for peace whenever it surfaces, use poor women and children in the Wanni as human shields and murder democratic Tamil political leaders or ‘moderates’ as Chilcott calls them They must be aware that the LTTE’s plan to deal with them later for not taking part in the struggle will not be painless.

Winning over the remaining SL Tamils, here and abroad will be the winning factor. Simply ‘developing’ the east and the north however well that is done, will not be enough, unless those areas are as free as the south to administer themselves and develop in the way its wants. The anti Syrian politicians in the Lebanon who on being compelled to be state guests for their own safety in the luxurious International Hotel said it best when they remarked that though they were well fed and looked after but did not have the liberty to leave their hotel, they were no better off than prisoners. Who would want to live under those conditions? The Tamils wherever they are, like the Muslims and the Sinhalese, must be able to have equal administrative power in the provinces they outnumber others. If steps are taken rapidly to initiate meaningful steps, the Tamils who are sitting on the fence will be encouraged to get off it onto the side of the state. The acid test however will be to persuade the TNA, the 22 proxies of the LTTE. When that happens it will be a decisive and mortal blow to the LTTE .At the moment being afraid of the merciless justice of the LTTE, the TNA 22 are soulless.

"Results of war in the last resort are an affair of body not mind, of physical force not plans or intelligence. …There is no known example in military history of a weaker force achieving victory in a protracted conflict". (Intelligence in War - John Keegan). It is known that in war however well one side performs it is the side that has the endurance to slog it out, bigger troop strength, demographic advantages and resources that will prevail. This is something the Tamils should take cognizance of when looking at the future without relying on the warped dreams of a megalomaniac and manna from the IC. The LTTE believed that endurance of the government, affected by pressures of the IC together with political bickering and combat difficulties, would run out. The hypnotic power of suggestion made the state doubt that which seems so obvious now, that having over 70% of the population on its side, it could never be held to ransom by at most 3-5 % of its people to hand over anything. According to the very reliable University Teachers’ for Human Rights, Jaffna (UTHR) communiqués the people in the Wanni curse the LTTE silently as they remove the dead bodies of their conscripted children who had been used as machine gun fodder by the LTTE. Thamilchelvam's death brought on no mass demos. Few in the Wanni readily express themselves for fear of extreme reaction by the LTTE pistol gangs and the Gestapo like justice there but it does not mean they support them. They wait the day of liberation from the LTTE after making sacrifices and suffering deep despair for 25 years such as seeing their children being abducted and their loved ones being conscripted to die so that Prabakaran can succeed. Their liberation will come when the Tamils finally desert the Wanni in great numbers and the Colombo Tamils step up and toe the line in the affairs of state. As the LTTE’s dream of eelam evaporates its will power will crack. It will then be up to Prabakaran to take Hitler’s remedy.


"In the conduct of war it is better to take the whole state than destroy it; it is better to capture the enemies’ army intact than to destroy it". (Sun Tzu). Surely this is the time and manner to drain the water (Tamils) from the pond and put the fish (LTTE) in tanks. The LTTE will not voluntarily lay down its arms and talk as long as the vast majority of Tamils remain leaderless and silent. The state must seek the support of the ‘moderate’ Tamils by initiating development and giving them political power. It could start with the return of Tamil lands especially in the HSZs as soon a possible. This should apply to the Muslim lands in Ampara too. The Tamil language must have equal status with Sinhalese in affairs of the state. There should be rapid development of the economy and infra structure of the affected areas, easing of travel restrictions, improving personal security and the conditions for refugees to return, provision of land, securing jobs with priority being given to the integration of youth of all communities into development plans and into the forces and police and sharing all the benefits of life enjoyed by those not in the conflict areas. Under such an onslaught when the LTTE realizes that even their protégés prefer desertion to living under them in the Wanni, their ongoing moral collapse will reach its inevitable end. Their weapons will no longer be of any use. They will want peace. That is the time they will lay down their arms.


What is required to defeat the LTTE without destroying them in battle is the unqualified support of the majority of the Tamils for the state. The Tamils will then not feel the bitterness of defeat and have any desire for revenge which was the LTTE’s motivating force, because being equal partners; this will be their victory too. That will be the supreme skill.


Given below is a quotation which may be relevant to all actors and communities:

"I consider it an offense against the Serbian people and the betrayal of the civic notion of society when evil is identified with the Serbian nationality. But I find it equally misguided when evil is not defined at all, for fear of hurting Serbian feelings. All people have their Karadzics and Mladics, either real or potential. If such men - as a result of a mix of historical, social and cultural circumstances gain greater influence than they have in other parts of the world, it does not mean that they come from a criminal people… (This) is a conflict of principles not of nationalities … in other words let us beware of attempts to lay the evil on whole peoples. That would be tantamount to adopting the ideology of fanatics"

(Vackev Havel- former Czech president who was said to have been one of contemporary Europe’s great visionaries)


(The writer is a retired career military officer holding the rank of Major General)

[Source: http://www.island.lk/2007/12/30/features1.html]

BALU-NAKUTU DUTUGAMUNU MUST BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE

Independent media reports that the President is on a campaign to intimidate the officials at Rupavahini Corporation following the attack by Rupavahini employees on Mervin the thug who walked into assault their collegues is troubling indeed.

"(LeN, 2007 Dec. 28, 7.00 PM) President Mahinda Rajapakse has thoroughly reprimanded the Sri Lanka Rupavahini Corporation (SLRC) authorities for allowing the outsiders to enter into the premises after the staff was agitated following Minister Mervin Silva's physical intimidation of the SLRC News Director.." reports LankaEnews.

It further reports that the Prez also ordered the incident not to be reported on State media. While this is authoritarianism of an unacceptable level, it also infringes not only on media freedom but also on the rights of individual citizens who have every right to know what is happening.

Further re-inforcing the thug-cum-politico Merv's behavior, the Presidential advisor is said to be compiling a list of those who counter-attacked Mervin when he physically assaulted the Rupavahini Corp officials.

The only good news seems to come from the judiciary, where Colombo's Chief Magistrate Macky Mohammed has demanded a comprehensive Police report on the assault by Mevin the political-thug. Sri Lankans need to support and demand impartial judicial performance if we are to live without shame, since the world is watching.

SRI LANKA'S SHAME - THUGS IN PARLIAMENT

Sri Lankan Minister Attacks TV Station
By BHARATHA MALLAWARACHI – 6 hours ago

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — A government minister and his bodyguards rampaged through the offices of a state television station Thursday, assaulting its news director before employees fought back and took them hostage, officials and witnesses said.

Press freedom advocates demanded punishment for Labor Minister Mervyn Silva, who has repeatedly been accused of threatening reporters.

"This is not the first time Minister Silva did this. The government should take strict measures against him," said Sunanda Deshapriya, an official with the Free Media Movement, a local media rights group.

Silva's alleged attack and the employees' retaliation captivated this war-torn country as it unfolded throughout the day.

The violence began Thursday morning, when Silva and a group of his bodyguards entered the offices of the Rupavahini Corporation and attacked news director T.M.G. Chandrasekara for not broadcasting one of Silva's speeches, said Kanchana Marasinghe, a station employee.

In an interview aired later on Rupavahini's news station, Chandrasekara said that one of Silva's aids attacked him and ripped his shirt open while Silva threatened to destroy the station's offices if his speech was not aired.

Angry staffers quickly chased the attackers into the chairman's office and refused to let them out for three hours as soldiers and police gathered outside to defuse the situation, a standoff that was broadcast live by Rupavahini.

Silva was eventually freed after issuing a public apology to the staff and left the office escorted by police amid hoots and jeers from station employees.

"I express my apology to the staff and Rupavahini for this incident," he told reporters.

Television footage showed the minister covered in red ink and staffers stoning his car.

Silva was admitted to Colombo hospital with a head injury, which was not critical, said hospital director Dr. Hector Weerasinghe.

Police arrested one person on suspicion of assaulting Chandrasekara, the news director, a senior police officer said on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Silva is one of the government's 36 non-Cabinet ministers, who have less authority and fewer privileges than the 50 Cabinet ministers. Another 20 lawmakers are deputy ministers.

The minister had previously been accused of storming into the offices of the Upali group, a private-owned newspaper company and Sirasa, a private television channel, threatening journalists at both places.

The government quickly condemned Silva's actions.

"We will not approve this kind of behavior," Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena, the non-Cabinet minister for media, told Rupavahini.

The ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party also planned to take disciplinary action against him, party secretary-general Maithripala Sirisena said, according to the Daily Mirror newspaper's Web site.
[ http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hWRyJRNpYgve7DrQxk-7lQZGiqFAD8TPTKM00 ]

MAKE 2008 THE YEAR OF VICTORY OVER TERRORISM

A great article by Dayan Jayatilleke

 

“…You can’t make the mistake of being weak. If you’re weak with security, you are defeated.”  - Fidel Castro: My Life (2007: 321)

We are about to step into 2008, the 60th year of Sri Lanka’s Independence. It shows every sign of being a decisive year. Indeed it must be made so.  Sixty years after independence is the right historical and psychological moment to resolve the major problem facing Sri Lanka. That is the reunification of this small island. Sri Lanka’s natural borders must be its political boundaries. Its armed forces must enjoy the sole monopoly of violence throughout its territory. Whatever its internal arrangements, the country must be one, single, indivisible political entity.

What does this mean in concrete terms? It means that the LTTE must be eliminated as a military challenge to Sri Lanka’s unity and territorial integrity. This in turn means that the Tigers must no longer be an armed force capable of rivaling Sri Lanka’s armed forces. The LTTE must no longer exist as a parallel army. This entails the destruction of the LTTE as a fighting force; the elimination of its leadership, its armed cadre and military assets.  This would create the opportunity for the LTTE to convert itself into a democratic political formation, provided it accepts that any solution to Tamil political grievances and identity issues must be pursued peacefully and democratically within the parameters of a single, united Sri Lanka.

More: http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=2128

60th year of Independence

A great article by Dayan Jayatilleke

“…You can’t make the mistake of being weak. If you’re weak with security, you are defeated.” - Fidel Castro: My Life (2007: 321)
We are about to step into 2008, the 60th year of Sri Lanka’s Independence. It shows every sign of being a decisive year. Indeed it must be made so. Sixty years after independence is the right historical and psychological moment to resolve the major problem facing Sri Lanka. That is the reunification of this small island. Sri Lanka’s natural borders must be its political boundaries. Its armed forces must enjoy the sole monopoly of violence throughout its territory. Whatever its internal arrangements, the country must be one, single, indivisible political entity.

What does this mean in concrete terms? It means that the LTTE must be eliminated as a military challenge to Sri Lanka’s unity and territorial integrity. This in turn means that the Tigers must no longer be an armed force capable of rivalling Sri Lanka’s armed forces. The LTTE must no longer exist as a parallel army. This entails the destruction of the LTTE as a fighting force; the elimination of its leadership, its armed cadre and military assets. This would create the opportunity for the LTTE to convert itself into a democratic political formation, provided it accepts that any solution to Tamil political grievances and identity issues must be pursued peacefully and democratically within the parameters of a single, united Sri Lanka.

The suicide option...

I thought this article was really well written, even if it only elaborates what's known to each and every person who knows anything about the terrorism issue in Sri Lanka.

I found this article in the Independentsl website which usually re-publishes others' articles and regularly fails to give credit where it is due. Therefore I am unable to source this accurately without being fair by the correct publisher and the author. Nevertheless it is well articulated and the true author deserves due recognition.

LTTE has only suicide to offer to Tamil people


Indi's Column

There’s video of the bra bomber on the net. You can see her sit down at a desk, in orange sari, thin and seemingly attractive. A man points at her chest, something odd. Her chest explodes, sending her torso flying and the man reeling into a pool of blood. It’s pretty sad, meaningless, and, well, just sad. At this point – after 25 years of armed failure – you have to realize that the suicidal path has failed. When the latest suicide bomber could be the child of the first - when it has become generational - suicide bombing ceases to be a tactic. It is now a way of life. Suicide bombing used to be a means. Now it’s just an end. The Tamil nation under Prabhakaran is just committing suicide.

Terrorism has failed. It simply doesn’t terrorize like it used to. People hear about the No Limit bombing – at one of the more crowded intersections in Colombo – and many just worry about the traffic home. Within minutes there are jokes around the water cooler because, as sad as it is, this is not that unusual. We all know someone who missed the Nugegoda bomb by minutes. But then they kept driving. And we all keep going. It’s just another day in a war that has lasted a lifetime.

There is nothing the LTTE can do to us that they haven’t already done. Attack the armed forces, done. Hit the Central Bank, done. Religious sites - bombed and machine gunned. Airport - struck, shut down, etc. Civilian massacres - but of course. Dead Presidents, Prime Ministers, Indian Prime Ministers, leaders and civilians? In the dozens. Bus bombs, trishaw bombs, assassinations, etc, ad nauseum, yadda yadda. Been there, done that. LTTE terrorism doesn’t shock anymore, and terrorism without shock value is just amateurish war.

In another video youth mill about in fatigues, carry guns, smiling and unsmiling. It’s the Anuradhapura attack where 20+ suicide cadres died while destroying millions worth of military hardware. Out of a budget of billions. The LTTE trained for months and lost all that human capital. For what? Really, just to make a statement. Just to show that they could. But all those young lives are irretrievably lost.

After 25 plus years, the suicide cult is stripped of all pretense. The LTTE is not a suicide cult that will lead to Tamil Eelam. It is just a suicide cult. Its cadres aren’t committing suicide towards an end anymore, they’re just committing suicide. Prabhakaran has said that if he betrays the dream of a separate Eelam, to kill Prabhakaran. And if the Tamils give up the dream of Eelam? If they decide they’d like to live in Wellawatte or travel and trade among the whole island? Then kill all the Tamils. That is what Prabhakaran is doing. His terrorism has failed. It does not work anymore. All he has to offer the Tamil people now is suicide. "

India's increasing influence in the Sri Lankan anti-terror war

India Plans Military Exercises in South to Ward Off Terrorists

By Jay Shankar

Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- India will hold military exercises in its southern peninsula next year, a move defense analysts said is aimed at controlling terrorists such as Tamil Tiger fighters operating from neighboring Sri Lanka.

The military plans to extend exercises to the far south, Mahesh Upasani, a spokesman for the Indian air force, said in New Delhi. Aircraft, naval vessels and troops ended maneuvers last week near the southern Indian cities of Thiruvananthapuram and Hyderabad, the Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

``The navy is spreading its wings by going to the southern part of the country,'' Bharat Karnad, a defense analyst at the Centre for Policy Research, said in a telephone interview from New Delhi. ``One of the aims of the military exercise could well be dealing with the menace posed by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.''

India and Sri Lanka have increased naval patrols in the Palk Strait between the countries to combat the LTTE, which is fighting for a separate state in areas of Sri Lanka it controls. The Indian navy said the LTTE changed its arms smuggling operations in response, India's state-run broadcaster Doordarshan reported on Nov. 26.

An estimated 60,000 Sri Lankans are in camps in India's southeastern Tamil Nadu state that lies about a two-hour boat ride across the waters, the United Nations says.

Air Patrols

French-made Mirage-2000s, Russian-built Su-30s, Mi-8 helicopters and unmanned aircraft were involved in last week's exercise, the ministry said in the statement. Fighter jets simulated ``friendly and hostile forces'' over long aerial ranges and air-to-air refueling units were used.

The navy and coast guard provided rescue ships and the army deployed troops and manned a communications network. Satellite images provided analysis of the simulated attacks on targets, the ministry said.

The exercise was aimed at protecting sea lanes and air space, Upasani said in a telephone interview from New Delhi. The headquarters of Southern Air Command is based in Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of Kerala state.

Next year's training will be ``the first time that such a peninsula-based exercise of a tri-service nature is undertaken by the army, air force and navy in the southern states,'' Dipankar Banerjee, director of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, said in an interview from New Delhi.

The LTTE has an estimated 12,000 fighters in its land forces and a 4,000-member naval unit known as the Sea Tigers. It unveiled an air wing when light aircraft bombed areas near the capital, Colombo, in March and April.

``One worrying factor is the aerial capability of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam,'' Banerjee said. ``It poses certain challenges to the Indian coast.''

Sea Tigers

The conflict between the Sri Lankan navy and rebels is also on the rise, Banerjee said.

``Concerns have widened in recent years,'' he said. ``This exercise is a response to the changing situation.''

The LTTE is moving operations to Kerala from Tamil Nadu, Doordarshan cited Vice Admiral Sunil Damle, who heads India's Southern Naval Command, as saying last month.

The Indian navy in February began round-the-clock patrolling of its waters off Tamil Nadu and coastguard vessels are monitoring the International Maritime Border.

Thirteen nations, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are participating in a military gathering in January in Port Blair, the capital of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands located in the Bay of Bengal, Indian naval spokesman Neeraj Sinha said from New Delhi.

``This is more of a consultative engagement,'' Sinha said. ``There will be no big exercises.''

To contact the reporter on this story: (Jay Shankar in Bangalore at Jshankar1@bloomberg.net