ELEPHANT PASS ON TARGET

THE LTTE is on the run. They are vacating the Elephant Pass garrison and are concentrating on defending the final bastion of Mullaitivu.

Mullaitivu has historical significance and advantages to the LTTE's own style of warfare. Here like in Thoppigala, they have successfully defended against repeated attacks by the SL as well as Indian forces, often defeating the attackers with massive casualties. Mullaitivu provides the LTTE the final chance to lure in its historic opponent into its best laid battle ground, to fight a war of its own choosing. The LTTE also appears to have retained some of its best trained fighters, long and short range weaponry in adequate quantities. What remains to be seen is whether its fractured leadership will stay and fight or flee, leaving the rank and file to fight to the finish against a determined enemy.

Unlike in earlier episodes however, the LTTE faces a daunting task in this fight to the finish. The SLDF entering the fray are superior in terms of both men, material, leadership and commitment. The Sri Lankan forces also are inducting specilized forcs who've been trained for the purpose of fighting a jungle war in Mullaitivu. These Special Forces have trained with some of the world's leading warfare teams such as the US seals and have proven their capabilities to be second to none.

In addition, the geo-political realities are stacked completely against the LTTE, even though they do not overtly or willingly support the Sri Lankan government. By default however, most nations near and far wish to see the defeat of Tamil Tiger terrorism.

Unlike earlier times also, the LTTE is incapable of carrying out diversionary attacks elsewhere, to ease pressure on its final frontier. Though the eastern areas may possibly see some LTTE activity, their chances of success in that theatre in conducting protracted guerilla warfare has diminished significantly as a result of often extra-judicial strikes by the ex-LTTE forces now turned SLG complicit. The combination of Karuna's TVMP and SL military intelligence can be depended upon to speedily deal with any upheavals in that area. Nevertheless, the one off suicide bomber may strike soft targets, being the only way for the LTTE to draw the world's attantion to its continued existance. However, that attention has very little chance of being advantageous to the terror group, while providing excuses for the government to use military means to deal harshly with its perpetrators.

Elephant Pass is expected to fall within two days as the SL military juggernaut strikes upwards from cleared territories of the south, and unleashes the 53 and 55 divisions waiting to enter the fray. The combined fire power of one of the world's most experienced and well led, totally committed armies now has the LTTE in its sights, within a small territory that is easily monitored in real time with technology in its possession. Unlike in earlier conflicts, the LTTE leadership now has to demand commitment and a will to fight to the finish from a group of conscripted followers who are well aware of the decidedly losing nature of their game. The argument for statehood loses its shine even with its most ardent followers when their is no prospects to defend or hold the boundaries claimed by such theory. After fighting for over 3 decades, the argument for seperatism has won nothing, if a horrendous death toll is to be ignored in the count.

The LTTE 's leadership is expected to attempt to flee when confronted with the prospect of capture or death. The Sri Lankan forces can be expected to do their utmost to prevent the escape of the LTTE leaders, with the intention of cutting off the serpent's head and bestowing on the aspirations of Eelam, the realities of Khalistan and Chechnyan seperatism.

Sri Lanka has the ability to wipe off Tamil terrorism from its soil, and must necessarily continue with its current initiative to eliminate the LTTE. The truth of the matter is, irrespective of how it is achieved, the world would not remember it for very long. Sri Lanka has little or no significance in the collective memory of the outside world. At most, if this campaign proves to be more brutal than is necessary, Sri Lanka may need to hang its head in shame for a week. To expect that the world would remember something about Sri Lanka for more than a week, is to over-estimate our importance and to indulge in fantasies of granduer.

Let's get this done and over with.