ENDGAME - A MUST

A possible scenario analysis of the future moves available to both the SLDF and the LTTE point towards a protracted guerilla war faught deep within the Mullaitivu jungles.

This is in the unlikely event that the LTTE would be able to blunt the Sri Lankan Defence Forces' overwhelming superiority in the coming months and survive the present onslaught to an extent where they continue to possess not only fighting cadre and equipment, but also credible leadership, an uninterrupted supply route/s and effective communication and mobility. Understanding this situation clearly allows the SLDF to drag the LTTE into urban and open space warfare where higher casualties can be inflicted upon the enemy.

Losing Killinochchi would have almost an unquantifiably large impact on the LTTE, not only in strategic and morale terms, but also in its newfound incapability to define a future goal in terms of past accomplishments. For many years, the slogan ' the goal is unmistakable' emblazoned with a map of Sri Lanka's North and the East held the racist Tamils of Sri Lankan origin now living all over the world spell bound and ready to contribute. On both militant and moderate platforms there was a basis on which a protracted campaign of violent and other struggle could be justified and fuelled. Losing Killinochchi denies the basis for the entire argument. It also tells the world a profound truth about Sri Lanka and its people; we shall not be intimidated or put down by violence.

Sri Lanka today stands on the threshold of sustainable peace and prosperity following a decisive defeat of the LTTE. This would irritate her enemies without any doubt. And our enemies who have proven to be resourceful many times in the past can also be depended upon to do their utmost to sabotage Sri Lanka's struggle to end terrorism yet again in many forums, including through authoritative international institutions such as the United Nations.

This is why Sri Lanka must take the initiative to take the fight out to those who could even potentially create problems for us, by adopting a Bush doctrine of carrying out pre-emptive strikes against those individuals and organizations which are conspiring to attack us. This could be done in many forms; listing such individuals as persons wanted in connection with supporting international terrorism and requesting their extradition and/or prosecuting such individuals in their own countries of residence, causing them severe hardship of a level adequate to keep them busy defending themselves, and not have the resources to conspire against us.

Sri Lanka also must not waste a single opportunity to highlight the importance of defeating terrorism on our soil, since that sets a basis for a previously unprecedented lesson that terrorim does not work and it can be defeated militarily. This must be done repeatedly and often, loud and clear. We do have plenty of friends all over the world who will agree with us and also support in establishing that lesson in no uncertain terms.

Nothing is too crazy in our situation. In war all that matters is winning. Not how.